New Environment – New Opportunities
2B1st Consulting is very pleased to wish you Happy New Year 2016 from its new Head Office in Chamonix – Mont-Blanc, France.
This location is at the core of the European markets and close to Geneva International Airport with numerous direct connections overseas.
In 2016, we shall be very pleased to continue to invest in new functions to propose you more information and to show you where to go for more business opportunities.
Fast-Track Projects against Postponed Projects
In 2015 a bit more than 80 projects where postponed, mainly from the international oil companies (IOCs) such as BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, Statoil scaling down their investments, especially deep offshore projects in countries with local content requirements.
These projects represent $200 billion capital expenditure which have been cancelled or delayed to further assessment.
These amounts are significant but if we compare them with the $2.5 trillion capital expenditure of the 1000 most active projects in the world, upstream, midstream and downstream, they represent only 8%.
In parallel we observed that the number of projects to be developed on fast-track has increased on the same period by 37% from 160 to 220 projects.
Of course the companies involved in these fast-track projects are not among the major companies mentioned above.
We find here mostly national oil companies (NOCs) and numerous independent companies deeply connected in the local markets.
In the 2010s years, there were very few projects executed on fast-track.
But in 2013 we started to identify number of companies willing to benefit from the shale gas glut in the USA and developing projects on fast-track.
In opposite way some other companies, with revenues much depending on gas prices, decided to monetize themselves this cheap resource in order to preserve their added value and reduce their exposure to declining prices.
When the oil prices started to collapse in 2014, this phenomena amplified and since April 2015 it took a leap.
As a result of this market dichotomy, we observe that the key players among the engineering companies, contractors, manufacturers, mainly depending on the IOCs had hard time in 2015, while the second league players have shown respectable growth between 10% and 15%.
From what we can see across the 1000 most active projects we trace over the world, 2016 should continue on the same trends as 2015.
Assuming the oil price to continue to go down, this market dichotomy will intensify between postponed projects and fast-track projects, between the major companies and the others.